As the longest shutdown in US history unfolded, we had seen the Democrats holding to the line that the Obamacare (Affordable Care Act or ACA) incentives that were killed in the “Big Beautiful Bill” must be restored.
When 8 Democratic senators (none of whom will be on the ballot in 2026) broke with the party on this position, there were cries of outrage from many Democrats who had felt empowered by their members for standing up to Trump and the Republicans.
But was this possibly a strategic move?
The ACA over time has grown to be one of the most popular programs from the US government. Around 2/3’s of US adults hold a favorable opinion of the ACA. One would expect that this would be the case among the Democrats and even the Independents, but recent polls show a majority of Republicans favor extending enhanced ACA tax credits (per polls by Forbes and Kaiser Family Foundation).
The point that the 8 Democrat senators “caved” on the ACA credit restoration demand needs to be factored by not just considering the ACA favorability among most Americans, but the fact that more than 3 out of 4 ACA enrollees live in states won by President Trump (per the Kaiser Family Foundation.)
What the 8 Senators got in return for voting to reopen the government -on just the issue of the ACA subsidies - is a promise of a vote in December in the Senate on extending the ACA subsidies.
What this means for the 20 Republican senators up for election in 2026 is a very difficult vote. There are undoubtedly not insignificant favorable feelings toward the ACA among their constituents, let alone a strong need for help with insurance costs.
Do the Republican Senators wish to risk harming their chance for reelection against getting in trouble with President Trump? Will Trump risk bad-mouthing or campaigning against any Senators that support the ACA? If Trump loses the Senate, he and his agenda are very well doomed.
This is an awkward position for the Republicans to be in. If they vote against the ACA extension, the campaign against them in 2026 highlights this issue not just in the affordability context that the Democrats are already hammering them (and Trump) on but in the context of very real risks to the health and wellbeing of their constituents when they can no longer afford to be insured and end up in emergency rooms further stressing the resources of hospitals. .
If the Republican Senators vote to support the extension of the ACA subsidies, the matter goes to the House. This action would create similar concern for the House Republicans. They also must factor their constituents’ needs versus Trump’s wrath. All of them are on the ballot in 2026 and their position on the ACA subsidies will be highlighted - especially if they voted against them.
The ending of the shutdown has added further challenges to the Republican party. The final vote to petition the full House for a vote on releasing the Epstein files is in place.
House Speaker Johnson delayed the swearing in of the recently elected Democratic representative from Arizona, Adelita Grijalva. As a result of the ending of the shutdown, she has been the final needed signatory of the petition to hold the vote.
Immediately, we have been seeing some releases of the vast trove of material in the Epstein files by both Democrats and Republicans. What we have seen so far indicates there could be a lot of messy questions for the President regarding his and convicted pedophile Epstein’s long relationship.
A vote on whether to release all the Epstein files will put the Republicans into another serious bind. Any vote against doing so will surely be characterized as protecting wealthy pedophiles by their Democratic opponents in the 2026 midterms.
Let’s consider also that the “let them eat cake” style of hubris demonstrated by Trump will not help. Leaving the country during the shutdown, ending food support to the poorest Americans, pardoning truly bad persons, tearing down part of the White House, personally emphasizing his gawdy White House remodeling prowess, authorizing extrajudicial killings of alleged drug smugglers and brutal tactics by ICE and Border Patrol, bailing out Argentina, etc., plus a plethora of inane remarks are not going over well with voters.
Indeed, the recent Democraticurence triumphant romp in the November 4, 2025 election has been cast as a strong disapproval of the President. Even Trump is likely noticing the boos and middle finger salutes he has received at recent sporting events on top of post-election surveys showing many voters were expressing their unhappiness with him.
So what happens if the Republicans do not move forward with changing their position against the ACA either by lying about holding a vote in the Senate or voting against restoring or even adjusting the subsidies. Premiums will significantly rise in January for millions of Americans - and the Republicans will be seen as fully at fault.
Let’s note that what has been accomplished to end the shutdown at this point only reopens the government until the end of January. This could lead to another shutdown by Democrats over the same ACA issue.
Meanwhile, passing the Senate bill by both chambers has secured benefits on such things as funding SNAP, Veteran’s Affairs, and the Department of Agriculture – all beyond January. It also funds and makes fully operational the General Accounting Office which has authority to sue the President to release funds and insures back pay and reverses the RIF’s (firings) of Federal workers.
Several challenges to the congressional Republicans and the administration are coming to a head. We may end up saying the Democratic “caving” on the shutdown is proving to be a strategic move with the additional potential to put Trump into full lame duck status.
W Laurence Doxsey, Retired, Former Director of Office of Sustainability for City of San Antonio, former Environmental Officer for US Department of Housing and Urban Development, former Sustainability Officer for City of Austin, resides outside Medina.
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