With control of all 3 branches of government, there is an opportunity to do a lot of good for citizens of this country. Bearing in mind that the economy was a key concern for voters in the 2024 election, it is helpful to see how this amount of power held by the Republican Party is doing.
First consider how big a concern this was for voters. Prior to the election, Gallup poll results showed the economy was the number one issue for voters out of 22 issues. This concern about the economy ranked the highest ever since the Great Recession with 90% of respondents saying the economy was extremely or very important to them. Clearly, this should be a priority for the party in control of our government.
How is it going? There is certainly one sector of the economy doing well under Trump – the legal sector. Currently there are over 325 court cases in play. Trump has been a great friend to lawyers over his career with just under 5,700 lawsuits under his belt. No question - the legal world is getting lots of work.
For the President himself, the economic good times are definitely rolling. Trump has increased his net worth to $7.1 billion from $4.3 billion since 2024. This has been accomplished primarily through crypto currency. His personal wealth increase was surely helped by rolling back regulatory enforcement of crypto and his signing of favorable legislation.
It is safe to say that only a few Americans are economically benefiting from Trump’s legal morass or crypto.
However, there are 12.7 million everyday Americans working in manufacturing. The tariffs ignited on Liberation Day in April this year were supposedly designed to spark this sector.
So far, manufacturing has lost 42,000 jobs since that date. Job openings and hires have dropped by 76,000 and 18,000 respectively according to the Center for American Progress.
Most economists blame the tariffs for creating the opposite effect of adding jobs. Indeed, we have seen pitiful job creation numbers this year. On top of the uncertainty as tariffs whimsically fluctuate (thereby causing businesses to pause their investments,) we do not see any real job creating rationale for the way the tariffs are rolling out.
For example, it is hard to say that Americans voted to have a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports because we supported former Brazilian President Bolsonaro’s January 6 like attempt to overturn the election he lost. The fact that Trump wants to support a kindred political scoundrel by punishing Brazil for convicting Bolsonaro of insurrection is surely not going to help our coffee prices. The US imports over $1.3 billion in coffee alone from Brazil out of $37 billion worth of products. (The US also carries a trade surplus of almost $3 billion with Brazil.)
Our country’s standing as well as our trade economy in South America will increasingly suffer because of this type of misplaced action.
China is already South America’s largest trading partner and we can expect that to grow as animus toward the US increases. Earlier this year, China hosted high level delegations from dozens of Latin American and Caribbean nations and announced a $7.7 billion credit line and new infrastructure investment plans. China is showing savvy in the “art of the deal “as the US squanders good relations and deals with trading partners.
It is primarily the pocketbooks of everyday Americans that are set to suffer from the Trump tariff taxes. The billionaires in the administration and lawyers fighting for and against Trump policies and actions will do fine while the estimate of a $2400 annual hit to US households remains in our forecast.
On top of poorly conceived tariffs, the Trump Republicans are withholding funds from the services that many of their voters need. Consider healthcare – a consequential part of our cost of living.
The cuts to Medicaid will hurt the economic standing of an estimated 7.5 million Americans. Ending premium subsidies for Affordable Care Act participants is expected to affect another 2 million people. This adds economic strain on a lot of people.
Trump’s vow to lower prescription costs by 1200% (or whatever the latest made-up number is) will not be enough income to make up for the impact to healthcare costs. (Note that suggesting anything over a 100% decrease means a person is getting paid to take the prescription - bizarre to say the least.)
Then let’s add the expelling of immigrants without due process and regardless of their status. This shows not only ill-conceived economic understanding but, as we have witnessed in too many cases, outright cruelty.
It can be questioned whether immigrants are a net gain or net loss to the US economy, but much research shows that the net effect is positive. For the federal government, immigrants pay in more than they cost according to the National Academy of Sciences and other studies.
It is a shared concern of both parties that unauthorized immigration needs to be controlled and that criminal elements need to be blocked. However, our nation’s economic strategy needs to recognize that foreign born persons (1) start more new businesses than native born individuals; (2) immigrants were involved in the development of 30% of patents in strategic industries; and (3) more than 40% of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants according to an analysis by the Migration Policy Institute. For the economy to be positive for everyone we need to manage immigration and bring on job creators and workers.
Lastly, among the many promises while campaigning for office, Trump’s promise to lower grocery prices on day one is a super important one. At this point, groceries are up 3% with the main effect of tariffs still pending.
The increased cost of living hitting everyday Americans will haunt the Republican Party as per the slogan from the Clinton campaign of the 90’s – “it’s the economy, stupid.”
W Laurence Doxsey, Retired, Former Director of Office of Sustainability for City of San Antonio, former Environmental Officer for US Department of Housing and Urban Development, former Sustainability Officer for City of Austin, resides outside Medina.
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