Trump Holds Ground in Polls, GOP Gains Momentum for 2026 Not much has changed since the November 2024 election of President Donald Trump to his second term, according to a new Emerson College poll conducted July 21–22. Among 2024 voters, 50 percent approve of Trump’s performance, while 46.8 percent disapprove — mirroring the 2024 popular vote split of 49.8 percent for Trump and 48.3 percent for Kamala Harris.
Trump maintains strong support among his base, with 93 percent of his 2024 voters approving of his job performance and only 3.5 percent disapproving. Among Harris voters, 6.6 percent now approve of Trump, while 91 percent still disapprove.
However, when non-voters are included, the picture shifts. Just 22.8 percent of non-voters approve of Trump, with 47 percent disapproving. That brings his total approval down to 45.7 percent with 46.8 percent disapproving.
A similar pattern appears in the 2026 generic congressional ballot. Among 2024 voters, Democrats lead Republicans narrowly, 46 percent to 45.2 percent. But when 2024 non-voters are added, the Democratic lead grows slightly to 44 percent to 41.5 percent, with 14.4 percent undecided.
Notably, 9.3 percent of Trump voters are still undecided about their 2026 vote, compared to 6 percent of Harris voters. That leaves Republicans with a small but important persuasion opportunity to bring those Trump voters back to the polls in a midterm year that typically favors the opposition party.
Democrats, meanwhile, may be concerned by how slim their margin is. In past wave elections, like the 2006 and 2018 midterms, Democrats held much larger leads. In 2006, polls showed Democrats up by 11.5 points on the generic ballot; in 2018, they led by over 7 points. Right now, they’re only ahead by about 2.5 points on average.
With midterm turnout typically lower and more heavily driven by high-propensity voters — such as those who voted in the last presidential election — Democrats’ narrow edge may not hold.
Trump’s approval also appears to be improving slightly. Compared to June, when 48 percent approved and 47.3 percent disapproved, Trump is now at 50 percent approval. Support among his own 2024 voters rose from 89.6 percent in June to 93 percent in July.
Despite headlines surrounding the Epstein case, MAGA discontent hasn’t materialized. According to the poll, 80.7 percent of Harris voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Epstein files, but only 23.2 percent of Trump voters do. Nearly half of Trump voters — 47 percent — are undecided on the matter, while 29 percent approve. The issue has broken down along party lines and doesn’t appear to be hurting Trump’s numbers.
That may be because other issues are top of mind. The economy continues to rank as the most important concern, cited by 31.3 percent of voters — steady from the previous month. With inflation cooling, unemployment still low, and the final round of Trump’s tariff adjustments taking effect, Republicans may benefit if economic trends remain steady or improve.
In terms of Congressional momentum, Republicans are showing slight gains. Among 2024 voters, GOP support has risen from 43.1 percent in June to 45.2 percent in July, closing the gap with Democrats, who remain flat at 46 percent.
While the current Democratic edge remains, the numbers suggest Republicans are within striking distance for the 2026 midterms. Much will depend on turnout, persuasion among undecided Trump voters, and whether independent voters lean more Republican or Democratic as campaign season ramps up.
In short, despite major national headlines and partisan noise, polling shows a mostly stable political landscape — with signs of modest Republican momentum among likely midterm voters.
Robert Romano is the Executive DirectorofAmericans for Limited Government.
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