The start of the early 2028 presidential campaign season is still six to 12 months away, but early polling is already offering a glimpse at a crowded and uncertain Democratic field.
The Republican path appears clearer, with Vice President J.D. Vance leading the potential field and expected to decide whether to pursue the presidency after the November midterm elections. Vance told CBS News in June that his focus is currently on the midterms.
For Democrats, at least seven potential contenders are already being discussed, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
A Harvard CAPS-HarrisX poll of 2,100 registered voters conducted Aug. 28-30 found Harris leading the early Democratic field, receiving 42 percent support among Democrats. Newsom followed at 18 percent, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez each received 9 percent. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Shapiro each received 7 percent.
The Economist/YouGov survey conducted Aug. 21-24 among U.S. citizens, rather than only Democrats, provides additional context on how potential candidates are viewed nationally.
Harris has the highest name recognition among the candidates surveyed, but that familiarity comes with a divided public. Thirty-nine percent of Americans view Harris favorably, while 50 percent view her unfavorably, giving her a net favorability rating of minus 11 percentage points.
Harris remains popular among some Democratic constituencies. Her favorability is 64 percent among Black voters and 75 percent among liberals. Among college- educated voters, however, 47 percent view her favorably and 49 percent unfavorably. Among voters under 30, 42 percent view her favorably and 43 percent unfavorably. Independents view her unfavorably by a 47 percent to 34 percent margin.
Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff has one of the highest net favorability ratings among the potential contenders, although most Americans have yet to form an opinion of him. Twenty-five percent view Ossoff favorably, while 18 percent view him unfavorably and 57 percent are unsure.
Ossoff is viewed favorably among college-educated voters, 34 percent to 21 percent, and independents, 21 percent to 20 percent. Despite the speculation surrounding him, Ossoff said in late August that he has “zero interest” in running for president.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear also has a positive net favorability rating. Twenty-four percent of Americans view him favorably and 17 percent unfavorably. His rating is particularly positive among Black voters, college-educated voters and independents.
Shapiro also has a positive net favorability rating, with 29 percent of Americans viewing him favorably and 24 percent unfavorably. Nearly half, 47 percent, are unsure how they view him.
Shapiro performs particularly well among Black voters, Hispanics and women. His favorability is 31 percent to 13 percent among Black voters and 34 percent to 18 percent among Hispanics. Among women, his favorability is 28 percent to 18 percent. Independents, however, view him unfavorably by 25 percent to 22 percent.
Buttigieg, who sought the Democratic nomination in 2020, has a narrowly positive national favorability rating. Thirty-three percent view him favorably, compared with 32 percent unfavorably, while 35 percent are unsure.
Buttigieg performs better among women, Hispanics and young voters. His favorability is positive by seven points among women and Hispanics and by nine points among voters under 30. Among independents, however, his rating is negative by four points.
Newsom, despite being one of the more prominent potential Democratic candidates, also faces significant unfavorable ratings. Thirty-one percent of Americans view him favorably, while 41 percent view him unfavorably and 28 percent are unsure.
Newsom's favorability is underwater among college-educated voters, 46 percent to 40 percent, and young voters, 35 percent to 23 percent. Among independents, his rating is negative by 17 points, with 41 percent viewing him unfavorably and 24 percent favorably.
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker has an evenly divided national rating, with 30 percent of Americans viewing him favorably and 30 percent unfavorably. Forty percent are unsure. Booker performs strongly among Black voters, with favorability at 46 percent compared with 10 percent unfavorable. Among white voters, his rating is negative by seven points. His rating is positive by five points among college-educated voters and negative by four points among independents.
Democratic contenders could begin formally announcing presidential campaigns in spring 2027, while the results of the 2026 midterm elections could influence the party's eventual field and priorities.
At this early stage, the polling shows a significant difference between familiarity and favorability. Harris leads the Democratic preference poll by a wide margin but also has a substantial unfavorable rating nationally. Candidates such as Ossoff and Beshear have lower name recognition but currently receive more favorable than unfavorable ratings among those who know them.
The Democratic Party will ultimately have to determine its strategy for 2028. For the first time since 2016, Democrats will not be able to define their campaign solely as an alternative to President Donald Trump, making the coming midterms and the eventual presidential primary especially consequential for the party's direction.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
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