Texas pecan growers are expecting an above-average crop in 2026, but disease, extreme heat and dry weather could affect yields and quality.
Monte Nesbitt, Ph.D., a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service pecan specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences in Bryan- College Station, said the 2026 crop is expected to be modestly larger than last year's.
The Tri-State Pecan Growers Association estimated Texas production at about 42 million pounds, though growers did not issue an official forecast at their July conference.
Nesbitt estimated the state's overall yield at about 39 million pounds, up from 32 million pounds last year.
Wholesale prices were stronger at times for the 2025 crop, with some spring lots topping $2 per pound and approaching $3 per pound during the first quarter of 2026.
The opening price for the 2026 crop will depend on the volume and quality of early harvests in Georgia, Louisiana and East Texas. Rising diesel, gasoline and fertilizer costs, along with increased spraying required because of disease and insect pressure, are also squeezing growers' margins.
More growers are turning to direct-to-consumer sales in an effort to improve returns, according to a 2024 survey by the Texas Pecan Growers Association. Nesbitt expects retail pecan prices to rise slightly this year along with broader food inflation.
Weather, disease create challenges
Pecan trees bud in late March and are not harvested until October at the earliest, leaving them exposed to weather, pests and disease for much of the year.
An unusually wet spring in North, East and Central Texas left many orchards needing little irrigation through July but also created conditions favorable for pecan scab, a fungal disease that can cause dark spots and lead to blackened or dropped shucks. Growers also reported increased cases of downy spot and powdery mildew.
Dry weather has since spread across much of the state. The hot, extremely dry conditions arrived as trees entered kernel fill, the critical August-to-September period when the edible portion of the nut develops and water demand is highest.
“The dry weather we’re having now is impacting the development of kernel,” Nesbitt said. “Shriveled, malformed kernels can hide inside normal-looking shells.”
Growers with reliable irrigation have a better chance of finishing the crop, while those without adequate water face more uncertainty.
“August is the separating point where pecans can go well, or they go badly,” Nesbitt said.
Producers also faced above-normal pressure from pecan nut casebearer, an insect whose larvae burrow into nuts and feed on the kernel.
Despite the challenges, Nesbitt said Texas' size and geographic diversity should produce pockets of high-quality pecans.
“Experience and overseeing our annual state pecan show makes me very confident that there are going to be good pecans in Texas in 2026,” he said.
Regional conditions
AgriLife Extension district reports show continued heat and drought pressure across much of the state.
In the West Central district, temperatures topped 100 degrees daily, with limited rainfall. Pecan orchards were generally holding their own, although supplemental water remained important during nut filling. Pastures were drying out, stock tanks were declining and hay production was slowing.
In the Southwest district, hot, dry weather also stressed pastures and crops. Pecan scab was appearing as nuts formed, while webworms were abundant as pecans matured.
Across the Central district, temperatures exceeded 100 degrees nearly every day during the month, with some areas receiving no precipitation. Declining stock tank levels and deteriorating pasture conditions prompted some ranchers to begin feeding hay and supplements.
The 2026 pecan harvest is expected to begin in October, with final production and quality dependent on weather, irrigation, disease and insect pressure during the remainder of the growing season.
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