Democrats have opened up a 7-point lead in the latest average of generic Congressional ballot polls compiled by RealClear Polling.com — 48.6 percent to 41.6 percent — and yet are only favored to win 205 seats in the House, while Republicans are fa vored to win 211 seats, according to the latest compilation by The Cook Political Report.
Usually, the party that wins the popular vote for the House wins the majority in the House. In Congressional elections every two years dating back to 1906, the party that won the popular vote for House elections won the majority in the House 55 out of 60 times — or a near-certain 91.6 percent of the time.
The exceptions were two mid term cycles, 1914 and 1942, and three presidential cycles, 1952, 1996 and 2012.
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