Democrats in Virginia, although they won their redistricting referendum 1.57 million to 1.48 million, or 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent as of this writing, dramatically underperformed their 2025 voting levels in the commonwealth’s gubernatorial race that elected Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger with 1.976 million votes. Whereas, Republicans appear to have slightly exceeded former Lieutenant Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears’ 2025 showing of 1.449 million votes.
Diminished Democratic turnout in blue areas was the only reason the referendum was close was lower turnout in blue areas. For example, in the 2025 governor’s race in Fairfax County, Spanberger received 330,000 votes to Earle-Sears’ 116,000, whereas for the referendum in Fairfax, Yes got 263,000 to No’s 115,000.
That made the referendum competitive, but to win, Republicans would have still needed almost presidential-level turnout in the rural counties.
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