Labor Force
The U.S. unemployment rate once again dipped in March down to 4.3 percent from its November 2025 peak of 4.5 percent, and the unemployment level dropped by 332,000 in March to 7.2 million, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The unemployment level is now down 542,000 from its November 2025 peak of 7.78 million, and otherwise is at its lowest level since July 2025.
At the same time, however, the employment level decreased another 64,000 in March to 162.8 million. That was the second month in a row, declining 1.1 million from its December 2025 peak of 163.9 million level.
So, how to account for the simultaneous decreases of both employment and unemployment? Look at the civilian labor force level, which has decreased 1.45 million since its November 2025 peak of 171.5 million to its current level.
Of that, those 65-years-old-andolder not in the labor force have increased 844,000 since November 2025 alone to its current level of 34.7 million. That’s the one to watch: Since June 2008, the number of seniors in America not working has ballooned from 19 million. That’s an 82.6 percent increase in almost twenty years.
And seniors account for a larger percent of the population, too, from 12.5 percent in 2008 to 19 percent in 2024, according to the World Bank.
In the meantime, fertility in the U.S. — and pretty much everywhere else — is hitting all-time lows. Here, it’s down from its 1960 levels 3.5 babies per woman down to about 1.6 babies per woman.
So, we simultaneously have more retirees and fewer young people entering the labor force. There is no way to make sense of current labor market dynamics without considering these factors.
Meaning, the U.S. could have a recession even with relatively low unemployment, below 5 percent, and you can have economic growth even when the labor supply is shrinking — but it means the growth has to come from somewhere else.
That could be where robotics and artificial intelligence fill a critical gap now and in the coming years, but those will not replace the need for replacing the current labor force, whether doctors, nurses, engineers, or plumbers, construction workers and farmers.
Given the dwindling supply of workers, we actually need higher conversion rates into professions where there are shortages, not lower.
Maybe stop telling kids AI is replacing them. That’ll just make it so they don’t think they need to work at a time when we need to encourage them to do everything possible to get situated into the labor force. Instead, tell them AI might help them in their jobs as a productivity boost and they’ll make more money.
Crush the drug cartels. Getting hooked on drugs isn’t helping anyone get a job.
And construct incentives for young families to have more kids, for heaven’s sake.
From the perspective of getting more Americans into the labor force, seeing both employment and unemployment decrease should be an alarm bell ringing loudly for the policymakers, corporate America and the U.S. economy as a whole. We need more people, not less.
Robert Romano is the Executive Editor of Americans for Limited Government.
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